The "CECI Index Analysis Weekly Report" (Issue 21, 2024) released by the China Thermal 12bet casino Procurement Price Index (CECI) Compilation Office shows,This issue (2024.06.06-2024.06.14)CECI Caofeidian Index is overall stable、The spot price of low and medium-sized cards fell slightly。The spot price center of high and medium-sized cards in the coastal index moves upward,Narrow range。Import index CIF unit price of standard 12bet casino fell slightly。CECI Purchasing Managers Index is in expansion range,Sub-index in progress,Supply、Demand and inventory sub-indices are in the expansion range,The price and shipping sub-indexes are in contraction range,Supply and demand sub-indexes increased month-on-month,Inventory、Price and shipping sub-indices decreased month-on-month。
1. Overview of market conditions
This issue,Power plant power generation increased significantly month-on-month,The heat supply has dropped significantly from the previous month,Electricity and 12bet casino consumption increased month-on-month,The amount of 12bet casino entering the plant is basically the same as the previous month,Inventory increased slightly。According to China Electricity Council fuel data statistics,The average daily power generation of 12bet casino-fired power plants of power generation groups included in the fuel statistics of the power industry increased by 6.0%,12 year-on-year decrease.8%。Electricity and 12bet casino consumption increased by 5 month-on-month.3%,11 year-on-year decrease.4%。Among them,The average daily power generation of sea transportation power plants increased by 3 month-on-month.9%,23 year-on-year decrease.8%;Average daily 12bet casino consumption increased by 1 month-on-month.9%,Decrease of 22% year-on-year.4%。North China、Sustained high temperature weather in Huanghuai and other regions increases the daily consumption of power plants,North China、The increase is most obvious in central and central regions,East China、Due to continuous rainfall in the south and other areas,The output of clean energy sources such as hydropower has increased significantly,Power plant daily consumption growth rate is slow。Power plant 12bet casino stocks rose slightly,Inventory available days 28.4 days,An increase of 3 days compared with the same period last year。
Supply and demand aspects of 12bet casino origin,Safety supervision requirements in major production areas continue to be strict,The overall supply is relatively stable,Traders are taking a wait-and-see attitude on the rise,But some cost-effective 12bet casino mines are selling well,Kengkou 12bet casino prices are generally stable,The prices of a few 12bet casino mines with low inventories are rising。Port market,Higher inventory at coastal and Jiangnei ports,Port shipping costs are upside down,And in anticipation of peak summer, most traders hold a wait-and-see attitude。However, the consumption growth of coastal power plants is less than expected,With the strong support of medium and long-term thermal 12bet casino contracts and imported 12bet casino,Power plant spot procurement demand is not strong,Only release part of the rigid requirements for library replenishment,The bargaining power of power plants has increased,There are differences in market expectations,The market trading atmosphere is relatively deserted,The actual trading volume is still running at a low level。
Overall view,The overall supply of the 12bet casino market in the main producing areas is mainly stable,Price in place of origin goes up and down,Market participants take a wait-and-see attitude。Power plant load has increased,Inventory reserves are guaranteed,Power plant procurement is still mainly based on small quantities of rigid needs。Limited release of port demand,Market 12bet casino prices remain stable,Peak season expectations have not yet been fulfilled。
2. CECI index analysis
CECI coastal index 5500 kcal/kg spot transaction price is the same as the previous issue,5000 kcal/kg increased by 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous issue。From the sample situation,The price center of 5500 kcal/kg and 5000 kcal/kg specifications has moved up slightly,Narrow range。From the sample calorific value distribution,4500kcal/kg、5000 kcal/kg、5500 kcal/kg samples account for 34 in the total.6%、55.4%、9.1%。
CECI Caofeidian Index 5500 kcal/kg on June 13、The prices of 5000 kcal/kg and 4500 kcal/kg are 878 yuan/ton respectively、777.3 yuan/ton and 678.8 yuan/ton,The average price of each product this week fell by 0% compared with the average price of last week.8 yuan/ton、1.5 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton。The spot price of thermal 12bet casino is generally stable,The price of medium and low-calorie 12bet casino has dropped slightly,The number of spot transaction samples for each calorific value has decreased compared with last week,Reflecting the deserted market transactions。
CECI import index CIF standard 12bet casino unit price 1024 yuan/ton,Decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared with the previous period,Month-on-month decrease of 0.8%。Among them,5500kcal/kg、The price of 3800 kcal/kg dropped by 12 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period、6 yuan/ton。The procurement time of samples arriving in Hong Kong is mainly concentrated in late May,High coastal power plant inventories、Load growth is slow,Superimposed southern ports tend to be saturated,Affected to a certain extent the amount of imported 12bet casino arriving at the port。
CECI Purchasing Managers Index is 50.53%,In expansion zone,Up 1 month on month.08 percentage points。Sub-index in progress,Supply、Demand and inventory sub-indices are in the expansion range,The price and shipping sub-indexes are in contraction range,Supply and demand sub-indexes increased month-on-month,Inventory、Price and shipping sub-indices decreased month-on-month。Among them,The supply sub-index is 53.28%,Up 1 month on month.99th percentile,In the expansion range for 14 consecutive periods,Indicates that the supply of thermal 12bet casino continues to increase,The increase has expanded。Demand sub-index is 50.97%,Monthly increase of 0.82 percentage points,In the expansion zone for 3 consecutive periods,Indicates that the demand for thermal 12bet casino continues to increase,The increase has expanded。Inventory sub-index is 50.65%,Month-on-month decrease of 0.71 percentage points,In the expansion range for 15 consecutive periods,Indicates that thermal 12bet casino inventory continues to increase,The growth rate has narrowed。The price sub-index is 48.15%,Month-on-month decrease of 0.48 percentage points,In the contraction zone for 3 consecutive periods,Indicates that thermal 12bet casino prices continue to decline,The decline has expanded。Shipping sub-index is 47.93%,Month-on-month decrease of 0.17 percentage points,In the contraction zone for 3 consecutive periods,Indicates that thermal 12bet casino shipping prices continue to decline,The decline has expanded。
3. Related information and suggestions
According to data from China State Railway Group Co., Ltd.,May,National Railway Sends Goods 3.3.7 billion tons,YoY growth 2.8%,Average daily loading 18.050,000 cars,YoY growth of 3.0%。In terms of ensuring the transportation of key materials,Make good use of Daqin、Haoji、Wari、Tang Hu、Main freight channels such as Lanzhou-Xinjiang Railway,Strengthening the transportation of 12bet casino from the west to the east、North 12bet casino Transport to the South、Xinjiang 12bet casino Shipping Organization,National Railway 12bet casino、The average daily loading of thermal and 12bet casino vehicles remains at 80,000 vehicles respectively、5.High level above 50,000 vehicles,Helping various places to “peak summer”。Xinjiang Railway’s 12bet casino transportation volume reached 3505 in the first five months.30,000 tons,49 year-on-year increase.4%。
According to the monitoring and summary data of the Office of the State Council Logistics Guaranteeing and Guaranteeing Leading Group,June 3-June 9,National freight logistics is operating in an orderly manner,Among them: the national railway has transported a total of 7635 goods.70,000 tons,Monthly increase of 0.6%;Cumulative truck traffic on national highways is 5294.80,000 vehicles,Month-on-month decrease of 0.71%。
Based on the above analysis,In terms of origin, pit 12bet casino prices are mainly stable,Terminal maintains rigid demand procurement,Some cost-effective 12bet casino types are selling well,A few 12bet casino mines with low inventories have seen steady growth。Recent high temperature weather is mainly concentrated in North China、Huanghuai area,To South China、East China and other places have relatively little impact,Superimposed rainfall and sufficient hydropower boost hydropower output,Coastal power plant consumption growth is smaller than expected,Weak demand for northern ports,Divergence in market expectations,The parties to the transaction are in a stalemate。High inventory at South China ports,Import spot futures source shipment pressure is high。Considering the peak summer season, the 12bet casino market is still expected to be supported,Multiple factors superposition,The market will maintain range operation。It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the weather、Changes in destocking and hydropower output at Southern Ports,Replenish rigid purchases in a timely manner according to actual needs,Earnestly ensure the safety of 12bet casino for power generation and heating during peak summer season。
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